Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
